I'm not trying to

start a panic here but this is something we all should be aware

of:
http://www.fluwikie.com/

What’s going on?

Influenza is caused by a virus. This virus has several main types and many subtypes. The human immune system

is ready to deal with a few of them, but there are many others that infect primarily birds and some other animals.

Most don’t infect humans because they don’t have properties which allow them to attach to and enter readily to human

cells. Even if we are exposed to these other subtypes, we don’t fall ill.


However

some bird flu viruses are “learning” to infect humans. Their surface has changed so that it is a bit more compatible

with our surface. So far, one specific bird virus (named H5N1) has changed itself (“mutated”) in ways that allows it

to infect humans, although it doesn’t do so easily. Nor has it gained the ability to pass easily from one person to

another (i.e., it is not very contagious) [as of October 2005].




Avian influenza refers

to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, these bird viruses

can infect other species, including pigs and humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect

humans. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans. For

this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is

contagious among humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird virus—it will be a human influenza

virus. Influenza pandemics are caused by new influenza viruses that have adapted to humans.






The World Health Organization has documented 170 human cases and 92

human deaths caused by avian influenza since January 2003. So far, most human cases appear to have been from

bird-to-human transmission only, although some cases of human-to-human transmission are documented and others are

suspected.

Why

worry?

The virus is

expected to continue to change its surface. This might make sustained human-to-human transmission possible, allowing

the virus to spread easily among humans across the globe.




We live in an age of

rapid, global travel. Because the virus can be transmitted before an infected person develops symptoms of the

disease, it will be near impossible to keep a pandemic virus constrained to any region of the world, and once it is

introduced in other places, it may be very efficient about spreading even further. Although the current outbreaks

seem to be confined to SE Asia and Indonesia, the situation may change rapidly. Indeed, the H5N1 virus has recently

been found in migratory birds in Russia’s Ural mountains, on Europe’s doorstep. Once the virus spreads easily from

human to human and becomes a pandemic (many disease experts say when, not if), we will be confronting a worldwide

public health emergency with hundreds of millions of people infected.




A certain percentage of

those infected with the virus will die. During the influenza pandemic of 1918, global mortality rate from the

influenza was estimated at 2.5% - 5% of the population, with some 20% of the world population suffering from the

disease to some extent. The disease spread across the world killing twenty-five million in the course of six months;

some estimates put the total of those killed world-wide at over twice that number, possibly as high as 50–100

million. An estimated 17 million died in India alone, with a mortality rate of about 5% of the population. In the

Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it. About 28% of the population of the USA suffered

from the disease, and some 500,000–675,000 died from it. 200,000 were killed in Britain and more than 400,000 in

France. The death rate was especially high in indigenous peoples where some entire villages perished in Alaska and

southern Africa. Fourteen percent of the population of the Fiji Islands died in a period of only two weeks while 22%

of the population of Western Samoa died. Half of those who died were 20–40 years old and otherwise healthy. These

figures were at a time when the world population was a third of what it is today. It is not possible to predict what

it would be like the next time.


Despite all our medical and scientific advances, we do

not have an effective treatment for avian influenza. Nor do we have an effective means to stop a virus from

spreading. Furthermore, during a pandemic there will be more sick people than there are hospitals and staff to care

for them.




The current avian flu everyone is worried about is known as the H5N1

subtype, but there are other subtypes (different from H5N1) which also affect birds, and one of these other subtypes

could just as well be the source of the next pandemic.




Avian flu is very

different from the regular seasonal flu. It’s a different virus, and the regular seasonal vaccine or “flu shot” will

not protect you much, if at all, from avian flu. The degree of protection by current vaccines is unclear, although

all experts agree that getting the current seasonal vaccine is important to protect you from the current circulating

viruses and may possibly have some benefit against H5N1.



What does it mean to me?



If you care about your health, then it matters.


If you care about the health of others, then it matters.


If you have a business, then a large number of providers, workers and

customers falling ill, plus a much smaller number dying and a larger number worried, all of that matters.


If you are into politics, then all the above matters.


If you’re into journalism, education, basic services, etc …



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What are others

doing?

The World Health

Organization has written plans and is helping member countries to get ready.
A growing number of governments have set up pandemic contingency plans that describe the specific actions and

measures to be undertaken at the national level in the event of an influenza pandemic.


Vaccines: According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and

Policy (CIDRAP), clinical trials of candidate H5N1 vaccines are currently under way. At this point however, it is

not clear if prototype H5 vaccines will offer protection against an emergent pandemic strain. To complicate matters

still further, new vaccines (like yearly flu vaccines) are grown in chicken eggs. The amount of vaccine that can be

produced is therefore dependent on the supply of eggs that producers can supply to vaccine companies. And the growth

process itself takes several months.



All these agents will play a role in the event of a flu pandemic.

Depending on where you live, some may require your help. In the event of a pandemic, governmental support structures

may prove inadequate or fail completely. It is therefore important that individuals and grassroots organizations

step in and organize at the local level.



What to do today



Use this and other websites to learn more about avian flu, also known

as bird flu or pandemic flu. Start with the links at the top of this page or see the where to start page.



Share your knowledge.

For example, you could support health officials in your area as they try to deal with a pandemic.



Think about how to make

your community more resilient. Talk with others about this. Look for simple ways to increase resilience: how to keep

water running, food coming in, help being given and taken, information flowing …

What to do if there’s a

pandemic

Go to the

pandemic preparedness page to learn more. In the case of a pandemic, as many as 30% of your neighbors and co-workers

may become ill (yes, that many), so you need to plan accordingly. If you’re used to having low inventories of

perishable goods or daily deliveries at your home, you may need to adjust your routine (the delivery service may

become unavailable for example). You may need to plan how to stockpile if a pandemic hits. You may need to identify

who are the key workers in your business, or who may need to get scarce flu shots. Browsing through the Local and

Regional Issues section may give you other things to think about that can help you prepare.