The leadership under Arafat has been fanning the flames of hatred for years. In this he has been supported by neigboring Arab states who welcome conflict there as a way to divert attention from their own misrule.
With the forceable removal of Saddam in Iraq and the positioning of two powerful US military land armies there, other nations are getting the message that the US intends to make fundamental changes in the governments of the region. Hence, external support for Arafat is fading.
Abu Mazan is now in the position to begin to wrest control of the Palestinian Authority from Arafat. I suspect that many \"normal\" Palestinians are tired of the fight and that, given a chance and better leadership, will welcome peace. This is a fundamental assumption about human nature that Americans believe is true.
Arafat and Hamas, et al, will not leave quietly. Some of the membership of Hamas, Hizbollah, etc, will accept Mazan\'s leadership and peace initiatives; some will not. The latter will have to be constrained by use of force.
The historical analogy is Ireland. The IRA faught the British and in 1922 won independence for all except the Protestant Northern counties. The main faction accepted this compromise and the State of Ireland was born. Some more radical IRA people refused the compromise, wanting ALL of the island under one government. The result was the Irish Civil War where the moderates defeated the radicals, bringing peace to the Catholic portions of the island. 3,000 Irishmen died. The radicals later revived their fight in the north but had no support from the State of Ireland and depended on foreign support, largely from ex-pats in the US.
So, by this model, Mazan will have to surpress the radical factions as the US blocks outside interference.
The goal is a separate, moderate Palestinian state. It will receive substantial foreign support so that the Palestinians have a chance to build a peaceful, prosperous life for themselves. Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will interfer at their own peril.
Sharon is backing Bush on this - this is wise since Bush has shown he is a man of action and a man of his word. Hard-line Jewish groups that oppose this plan do so at their own peril too.
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