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  1. #1
    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Default Flu Pandemic?

    visit-red-300x50PNG
    I'm not trying to

    start a panic here but this is something we all should be aware

    of:
    http://www.fluwikie.com/

    What’s going on?

    Influenza is caused by a virus. This virus has several main types and many subtypes. The human immune system

    is ready to deal with a few of them, but there are many others that infect primarily birds and some other animals.

    Most don’t infect humans because they don’t have properties which allow them to attach to and enter readily to human

    cells. Even if we are exposed to these other subtypes, we don’t fall ill.



    However

    some bird flu viruses are “learning” to infect humans. Their surface has changed so that it is a bit more compatible

    with our surface. So far, one specific bird virus (named H5N1) has changed itself (“mutated”) in ways that allows it

    to infect humans, although it doesn’t do so easily. Nor has it gained the ability to pass easily from one person to

    another (i.e., it is not very contagious) [as of October 2005].





    Avian influenza refers

    to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, these bird viruses

    can infect other species, including pigs and humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect

    humans. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans. For

    this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is

    contagious among humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird virus—it will be a human influenza

    virus. Influenza pandemics are caused by new influenza viruses that have adapted to humans.






    The World Health Organization has documented 170 human cases and 92

    human deaths caused by avian influenza since January 2003. So far, most human cases appear to have been from

    bird-to-human transmission only, although some cases of human-to-human transmission are documented and others are

    suspected.


    Why

    worry?


    The virus is

    expected to continue to change its surface. This might make sustained human-to-human transmission possible, allowing

    the virus to spread easily among humans across the globe.





    We live in an age of

    rapid, global travel. Because the virus can be transmitted before an infected person develops symptoms of the

    disease, it will be near impossible to keep a pandemic virus constrained to any region of the world, and once it is

    introduced in other places, it may be very efficient about spreading even further. Although the current outbreaks

    seem to be confined to SE Asia and Indonesia, the situation may change rapidly. Indeed, the H5N1 virus has recently

    been found in migratory birds in Russia’s Ural mountains, on Europe’s doorstep. Once the virus spreads easily from

    human to human and becomes a pandemic (many disease experts say when, not if), we will be confronting a worldwide

    public health emergency with hundreds of millions of people infected.





    A certain percentage of

    those infected with the virus will die. During the influenza pandemic of 1918, global mortality rate from the

    influenza was estimated at 2.5% - 5% of the population, with some 20% of the world population suffering from the

    disease to some extent. The disease spread across the world killing twenty-five million in the course of six months;

    some estimates put the total of those killed world-wide at over twice that number, possibly as high as 50–100

    million. An estimated 17 million died in India alone, with a mortality rate of about 5% of the population. In the

    Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it. About 28% of the population of the USA suffered

    from the disease, and some 500,000–675,000 died from it. 200,000 were killed in Britain and more than 400,000 in

    France. The death rate was especially high in indigenous peoples where some entire villages perished in Alaska and

    southern Africa. Fourteen percent of the population of the Fiji Islands died in a period of only two weeks while 22%

    of the population of Western Samoa died. Half of those who died were 20–40 years old and otherwise healthy. These

    figures were at a time when the world population was a third of what it is today. It is not possible to predict what

    it would be like the next time.



    Despite all our medical and scientific advances, we do

    not have an effective treatment for avian influenza. Nor do we have an effective means to stop a virus from

    spreading. Furthermore, during a pandemic there will be more sick people than there are hospitals and staff to care

    for them.





    The current avian flu everyone is worried about is known as the H5N1

    subtype, but there are other subtypes (different from H5N1) which also affect birds, and one of these other subtypes

    could just as well be the source of the next pandemic.





    Avian flu is very

    different from the regular seasonal flu. It’s a different virus, and the regular seasonal vaccine or “flu shot” will

    not protect you much, if at all, from avian flu. The degree of protection by current vaccines is unclear, although

    all experts agree that getting the current seasonal vaccine is important to protect you from the current circulating

    viruses and may possibly have some benefit against H5N1.




    What does it mean to me?



    If you care about your health, then it matters.


    If you care about the health of others, then it matters.


    If you have a business, then a large number of providers, workers and

    customers falling ill, plus a much smaller number dying and a larger number worried, all of that matters.


    If you are into politics, then all the above matters.


    If you’re into journalism, education, basic services, etc …



    ↓ edit · top



    What are others

    doing?


    The World Health

    Organization has written plans and is helping member countries to get ready.

    A growing number of governments have set up pandemic contingency plans that describe the specific actions and

    measures to be undertaken at the national level in the event of an influenza pandemic.


    Vaccines: According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and

    Policy (CIDRAP), clinical trials of candidate H5N1 vaccines are currently under way. At this point however, it is

    not clear if prototype H5 vaccines will offer protection against an emergent pandemic strain. To complicate matters

    still further, new vaccines (like yearly flu vaccines) are grown in chicken eggs. The amount of vaccine that can be

    produced is therefore dependent on the supply of eggs that producers can supply to vaccine companies. And the growth

    process itself takes several months.




    All these agents will play a role in the event of a flu pandemic.

    Depending on where you live, some may require your help. In the event of a pandemic, governmental support structures

    may prove inadequate or fail completely. It is therefore important that individuals and grassroots organizations

    step in and organize at the local level.




    What to do today



    Use this and other websites to learn more about avian flu, also known

    as bird flu or pandemic flu. Start with the links at the top of this page or see the where to start page.



    Share your knowledge.

    For example, you could support health officials in your area as they try to deal with a pandemic.



    Think about how to make

    your community more resilient. Talk with others about this. Look for simple ways to increase resilience: how to keep

    water running, food coming in, help being given and taken, information flowing …


    What to do if there’s a

    pandemic


    Go to the

    pandemic preparedness page to learn more. In the case of a pandemic, as many as 30% of your neighbors and co-workers

    may become ill (yes, that many), so you need to plan accordingly. If you’re used to having low inventories of

    perishable goods or daily deliveries at your home, you may need to adjust your routine (the delivery service may

    become unavailable for example). You may need to plan how to stockpile if a pandemic hits. You may need to identify

    who are the key workers in your business, or who may need to get scarce flu shots. Browsing through the Local and

    Regional Issues section may give you other things to think about that can help you prepare.

    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Default Think clean !

    After antibiotics

    were introduced on a large scale we became careless. The sexual revolution was the result of effective birth control

    and effective disease control. That is, until we hit the HIV plague and non of the existing antibiotics could help.

    The only option was to change behavior, limit transmission. The H5N1 flu will do the same thing... we'll have to

    become clean freaks once again ( like happened after the 1918 influenza epidemic )... you know all those popular

    disinfectant cleaners like Lysol ? Those entered the marketplace right after the 1918 flu killed about 20,000,000

    people, which is roughly the entire population of Slovakia or North Korea or Israel... if it were to kill

    *proportionately* the same number of victims, it might eliminate 100,000,000, say the population of Nigeria or the

    number of new humans added to the earth in one year... and there's really no medicine that's all that effective...

    so we're back to square one, lots of disenfectant, lots of hot water, wearing face masks so you can't spew

    droplets when you cough... avoid crowded places, dress warm, don't smoke or irritate respiratory tissue...

    everthing mom said to do !

  3. #3
    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Default

    All true and really scary.



    That web page I linked to has lists of things people can do to prepare for what many people think is going to

    happen. I personally don't know for sure but feel it's worth being prepared for the worst.
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Thanks Bel! I clicked

    around on that website a bit, and here's the link to
    "Personal and Family preparedness".



    http://www.fluwikie.com/index.p

    hp?n=Consequences.PersonalFamilyPreparedness


    Unfortunately the Tamiflu is unavailable now. I could have

    gotten some last year at $ 20 a box (shipped from Europe) but I didn't. Now they have decided to stockpile the

    stuff and it has become unavailable in pharmacies until further notice (even with a prescription).

    One thing I

    will purchase next is some boxes of Advil and Tylenol. Alternating between the two does a better job at lowering

    fever, than taking one or the other by itself. You can also get away with higher doses that way. For instance if

    your next dose of Ibuprofen is 6 hours from now, it is OK to take the Acetominophen in 3 or 4 hours. My pediatrician

    told me that a long time ago for my kids.
    Treasure Every Moment that you have
    Yesterday is History - Tomorrow is a Mystery
    Today is a Gift - That's why It's called the Present!
    (Unknown source)

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    Treasure Every Moment that you have
    Yesterday is History - Tomorrow is a Mystery
    Today is a Gift - That's why It's called the Present!
    (Unknown source)

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    Default

    Do you know wha they are

    goind= gto do once it reaches Europe. Are you anywhere near it

    Belgareth?
    I was having nervous breakdowns.

  7. #7
    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lorenzo_91
    Do you know

    wha they are goind= gto do once it reaches Europe. Are you anywhere near it

    Belgareth?
    I'm in Texas, USA. Have heard little bits and

    pieces of plans but nothing definate. To tell you the truth, if anywhere close to 5% catch it, the medical system is

    going to be overwhelmed.

    ************************
    Disclaimer: I do not know that the virus will continue to

    mutate and I do not know how many people will get it or what parts of the world will be affected the worst by the

    possible Pandemic.
    ***********************

    If it does mutate and begin to transmit human to human it could

    very easily overwhelm all possible medical care quickly. Most of us are going to have to get by with what they call

    shelter in place: Stock up on lots of food. Go home and stay there. Read the page I linked too, it has a lot of good

    advice about what you need to have availablle and what you can do for somebody who gets sick.
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    The way I picture it is as

    follows:

    1) The virus that is killing birds and some people who handle those contaminated birds will spread

    across the globe.

    2) The real danger is that virus mutating so the flu becomes transmissible from person to

    person.

    3) When that will happen, no-one knows. The later, the better.

    4) Where that will happen no-one

    knows. It's not because the birds got sick in Europe first, that the mutated virus will appear in Europe first. It

    could be anywhere.

    I would say - stockpile non-perishable foods so you can avoid supermarkets and crowds if need

    be. Don't buy weird stuff though, just things that you eat anyway.

    PS And I'm wondering if this is correct:

    They cannot really develop an effective vaccine against the mutated version because they don't know yet in what way

    it will mutate.
    Treasure Every Moment that you have
    Yesterday is History - Tomorrow is a Mystery
    Today is a Gift - That's why It's called the Present!
    (Unknown source)

  9. #9
    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Default FAO to boost bird flu role

    FAO to boost bird flu role By Robin Pomeroy

    ROME (Reuters) - The United Nations' Food and

    Agriculture Organization (FAO) is to play a greater role in fighting bird flu, becoming a "global clearing house"

    for efforts to stem the spread of the virus, it said on Tuesday.

    The

    United States and the European Union have backed the formation of a what a senior U.S. official called an

    "emergency operations center" at the FAO's Rome headquarters. The initiative was agreed at a meeting at the FAO

    requested by the U.S. and EU.

    Funding for the center will come from a

    pot of almost $2 billion pledged by wealthy nations at an international conference in Beijing in January. The U.S.

    would provide experts to help run the center and expects other nations to follow

    suit.

    The move follows the spread of H5N1 avian flu into at least 15

    new nations over the past month, with cases detected in birds in several countries across Europe and also in flocks

    in Egypt and West Africa.

    The virus, which re-emerged in Asia in late

    2003, can wipe out poultry flocks in the space of 48 hours. It can also infect people who come into close contact

    with sick poultry and has claimed 95 human lives.

    The virus is mutating

    and there are fears it may eventually change enough to be transmitted easily from human to human, sparking a

    pandemic in which millions could die.

    Nigeria, Africa's most populous

    nation, said on Tuesday it had found cases of highly pathogenic bird flu in three new states including one in the

    far south, suggesting the virus has spread all over the West African country.

    "EARLY WARNING SYSTEM"
    The FAO intends to set up an "early

    warning system," to track the spread of the virus and estimate where the next outbreaks may occur, said Samuel

    Jutzi, head of animal production and health at the FAO.

    "It would

    undertake 'rumor tracking' and would be similar to what the World Health Organization has to observe and monitor

    developments of epidemics 24 hours-a-day," Jutzi told Reuters.

    Ron

    DeHaven, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's top official on bird flu, who attended the meeting, said the

    efforts to tackle bird flu in animals had, to date, mostly been done bilaterally and something that had to

    change.

    "If you can have a global strategy, recognize what the needs

    are globally and then direct resources of the right kind where they are needed the most, you can be far more

    effective," DeHaven told reporters.

    The Unites States has not yet had a

    case of bird flu, but authorities there are "very concerned" about the virus and are acting on the assumption that

    it will get there one day.

    "Whether it arrives (in the United States)

    next week, next month or a year from now, we don't know, so we have to prepare as well and as quickly as we can,"

    he said.

    Poultry sales in United States have not yet been hit by fears

    over the disease, unlike in parts of Europe where sales plummeted even before the virus was found, DeHaven noted,

    adding that U.S. authorities were working to reassure the public.

    "We

    don't think that after we find H5N1 in the U.S. is the time to start to educate our public, we're doing it now ...

    we hope to minimize what impact there might be when and if we get the virus in the united

    States."

    Experts have said repeatedly that properly cooked poultry is

    safe to eat, but that has failed to reassure all consumers.




    (Additional reporting by Estelle Shirbon in Abuja)
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Default Bird flu could hit Americas within a year:

    Bird flu could hit Americas within a year: UN By Irwin Arieff



    UNITED NATIONS

    (Reuters) - Bird flu, already spreading across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is expected to jump

    across the Atlantic Ocean to the Americas within a year, a senior U.N. official said on Wednesday.


    "It is certainly within the next six to 12 months. And who knows,

    we've been wrong on other things, it could be earlier," said Dr. David Nabarro, coordinator of the U.N. drive to

    contain the pandemic in birds and prepare for its possible jump to humans.

    He predicted the leap across the Atlantic Ocean would take place in two stages, carried in the next few months

    by wild birds flying from West Africa to the Arctic region, and then brought southward to North and South America

    six months later.

    "I just think that every country in the world now

    needs to have its veterinary services on high alert for H5N1, to try to make sure that they don't get caught

    unawares and find that it gets into their poultry populations without knowing," Nabarro told a news conference at

    U.N. headquarters.

    "And I will bet you that many countries in the

    Western Hemisphere are doing just that," he added.

    The H5N1 bird flu

    virus has led to the deaths of millions of birds in more than 30 countries. It has spread to over a dozen new

    countries in the past month and infected 175 people since 2003, killing 96 of

    them.

    Although it remains an avian disease, and rarely affects humans,

    health officials fear it will mutate into a form that can easily jump from human to human, triggering a pandemic in

    which millions of people might die.

    For the immediate future, the

    spread of the disease among birds in Africa is the main focus of the U.N. team -- which includes the World

    Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health, Nabarro

    said.

    The disease has been confirmed in Niger and Nigeria but there

    have been bird die-offs in other African nations and confirmation of its further spread is expected soon, he

    said.

    To spur preparedness, representatives of more than 40 sub-Saharan

    African countries will be meeting in the Gabonese capital Libreville later this month, he said.


    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Moderator belgareth's Avatar
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    Bird Flu Could Appear in U.S. in Months By LARA JAKES JORDAN, Associated Press Writer


    Thu Mar 9, 2006
    WASHINGTON - A deadly strain of bird flu could appear in the United States in the next few months as wild

    birds migrate from infected nations, Homeland Security Michael Chertoff said Thursday.


    Chertoff said "there will be a reasonable possibility of a domestic

    fowl outbreak" as migrating birds mix with ducks, chickens and other birds in the U.S. But he cautioned against

    panic, noting that the Agriculture Department has dealt with other strains of bird flu for

    years.

    "If we get a wild bird or even a domestic chicken that gets

    infected with avian flu, we're going to be able to deal with it, because we've got a lot of experience with that,"

    Chertoff said, speaking to newspaper editors and publishers.

    "I can't

    predict, but I certainly have to say that we should be prepared for the possibility that at some point in the next

    few months, a wild fowl will come over the migratory pathway and will be infected with H5N1," he

    said.

    The H5N1 strain has killed at least 95 people since 2003, mostly

    in Asia, according to the World Health Organization, and has devastated poultry stocks. Scientists are concerned

    that the virus could mutate into a form easily spread among people, sparking a pandemic.
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Default

    Bird Flu May Arrive in U.S.

    This Year By LIBBY QUAID, AP Food and Farm Writer
    Tue Mar 21, 2006


    WASHINGTON - Bird flu is likely to arrive

    this year in the United States, with the increased testing of tens of thousands of wild birds expected to reveal

    dozens of suspected cases, the Bush administration said Monday.
    Officials will test 75,000 to 100,000 wild birds

    this year, or nearly six times the number screened since 1998, according to a government plan finalized Monday. The

    government also plans to quarantine and destroy any poultry flocks where the virus appears.
    The wild bird testing

    could reveal 20 to 100 suspected cases of bird flu, although follow-up testing is likely to reveal "dozens" are

    false alarms, Interior Secretary Gale Norton said. The emphasis will be on Alaska and other spots along the Pacific

    flyway, a common route that migratory birds follow into the U.S., possibly carrying the virus as they do. Tests will

    also be run on 50,000 water and bird dropping samples from waterfowl habitats, the government said.
    Health and

    Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt stressed that people are not yet at risk from the virus, which has ravaged

    wild and domestic birds alike in Asia, Africa and Europe.
    "At this point, if you're a bird, it's a pandemic. If

    you're a human, it's not a pandemic," Leavitt said.
    Norton cautioned that while officials plan to announce any

    positive tests for bird flu, it will take another five to 10 days for the Agriculture Department's laboratory in

    Ames, Iowa, to confirm the results.
    "This is a disease of birds and not humans, at this point. Finding a bird with

    the disease does not signal a pandemic," Norton said.
    Human cases of bird flu have been rare, but scientists fear

    the virus could mutate into a form easily spread among people, sparking a worldwide epidemic. For now, wild birds

    are getting much of the government's attention.
    Officials also worry the virus might spread from wild birds to the

    nearly 10 billion chickens raised each year in the U.S. Authorities say cooking kills the virus and it is safe to

    eat properly handled and cooked poultry.
    Commercial poultry companies already test every flock for bird flu. If the

    deadly virus shows up in a commercial bird, the entire flock would be quarantined and killed, and the area would be

    disinfected. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said the government would compensate farmers for their destroyed

    flocks.
    Unlike in many of the countries affected by bird flu, the U.S. has a highly consolidated, $29 billion

    poultry industry that raises the majority of its birds in controlled, indoor facilities. That minimizes contact

    between wild and domestic birds.
    "Our producers are as eager as we are to protect the safety of our poultry,"

    Johanns said.
    While the deadly strain of the virus has not yet been found in the U.S., other strains have. Birds,

    like humans, have a flu season. Less virulent "low-pathogenic" flu viruses are common. But three times — in

    1924, 1983 and 2004 — a lethal, "highly pathogenic" strain has emerged in the U.S.
    Also Monday, the

    government banned veterinarians from using human antiviral drugs, such as Tamiflu, to treat animals. The goal is to

    ensure the drugs remain effective in people. A spokesman for the National Chicken Council said the industry does not

    use the drugs.
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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    Default 'Very low' risk of bird flu spreading between humans: British government scientist

    'Very low' risk of bird flu

    spreading between humans: British government scientist Sun Apr 9, 2006








    LONDON (AFP) - The likelihood of the lethal H5N1 strain of the bird

    flu virus mutating into a form that can be transmitted between humans is "very low", the British government's chief

    scientific adviser said.

    David King was speaking after a dead swan

    discovered in eastern Scotland this week was found to have the H5N1 strain of the disease, prompting speculation

    that the virus could spread throughout Britain.

    But although the

    scientist acknowledged that transmission of the disease from birds to humans could trigger a global pandemic, he

    said it was "totally misleading" to say it was inevitable.

    "The

    pandemic flu that we are now talking about would be in the human population. It is not in the human population at

    the moment," he told ITV1 television.

    "So, yes, the government is

    preparing for that possibility but I would say it's a very low possibility. I don't believe it's

    inevitable."

    King noted that despite the 100 or more deaths from bird

    flu, mainly in Asia, widespread human-to-human transmission of the disease had not

    developed.

    And he denied that the swan's discovery meant that bird flu

    was now in Britain, insisting it was "absolutely not" in poultry and that he was "fairly optimistic" about the wild

    bird population escaping the disease.

    "The one swan does not mean it

    has arrived here. We need to see more evidence of spread before we can say that is has arrived in the United

    Kingdom," he said.

    Malaysia announced Sunday it was banning imports of

    birds and eggs from Britain following the discovery.

    The mute swan in

    Scotland had a "very similar" strain of the H5N1 form of bird flu to the one found in scores of birds on the German

    island of Ruegen in February, Scotland's chief veterinary officer Charles Milne revealed

    Sunday.

    But he said there was no scientific proof to determine how the

    swan came to be infected.

    The discovery has prompted thousands of calls

    reporting dead birds to a national helpline set up by the environment ministry.
    To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.

    Thomas Jefferson

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