Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics!

[druid]

Here is

a book I found on amazon.com, How to Lie With Statistics. I think I might pick this one

up.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393310728/ref=cm_cr_dp_2_1/1

04-5484362-5481516?v=glance&s=books&vi=customer-reviews

[koolking1]

I read that book many years ago and it was an \"eye-opener\". If this kind of thing interests you, you might

also want to read some books on \"marketing\" - you\'d be mighty surprised how things are done to make you want

to buy something or believe in something.

[DrSmellThis]

Nice post. You can get much more value out of statistics and appreciate it more by learning how it can be abused.

The are a million ways to run a crappy study or write it up in a crappy way. I wish everybody had the quality of

intelligent skepticism contained in that book.

One of the most important skeptical principles to keep in

mind when you see statistics reported somewhere is that just because two things are correlated (meaning that the

level of one changes with the other in a consistent way) does not mean that one of them causes the other to

change. For example, even if every person who ate twinkies got cancer (a perfect correlation); we could not show

that eating twinkies causes cancer, based on that fact. The fallacy that correlation somehow implies

causality appears every day in the papers, even today. Journalists aren\'t taught about it, unfortunately.

Even some \"scientists\" (bad ones) fall for this BS.

Another important principle of research-consumer

skepticism is that we should review every aspect of how researchers choose to design their studies. Why? Because the

design of a study determines the kinds of results it is possible to end up with. What is being compared in the

study? How and why? How could the comparisons be different? If the design is sloppy or irresponsible, the researcher

could be seeing only what he or she wants to see. (This is called \"confirmation bias\")

On the other hand,

stats are just a neutral tool of reasoning; a natural part of reasoning. You have to appreciate stats to be able to

understand what we know about the world. Some believe that statistics are \"bad\". That belief is every bit as

dangerous as \"believing every number you read\"! That would be like saying logic (another tool of reasoning) is

bad just because logic can be misused.

To be sure, we need statistics to be able to understand physics,

mathematics, genetics, psychology, and many other fields of knowledge. Why? Because nature behaves in statistical

ways, at just about every level; wherever and whenever there are repetitions, trends, numbers, possibilities or

probabilities. That\'s just about everywhere and always.

We have no choice but to turn to statistics --

albeit carefully -- if we want to understand our world.

[bjf]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />

To be sure, we need statistics to be able to

understand physics, mathematics, genetics, psychology, and many other fields of knowledge. Why? Because nature

behaves in statistical ways, at just about every level; wherever and whenever there are repetitions, trends,

numbers, possibilities or probabilities. That\'s just about everywhere and always.

We have no choice but to

turn to statistics -- albeit carefully -- if we want to understand our world.

<hr /></blockquote><font

class=\"post\">

Man, I HATE statistics. P.S., try my new BF #7, Pi:NPA:SOE:WAGG:AE:PF 14:9:7:4:2:1

[DrSmellThis]

You are starting to sound like watcher, posting your great mixes (sounds like a good one, BTW).

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Don\'t blame you one bit! I always hated stats too, with a

passion (I was cruelly forced to take many courses in it! [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), until

I finally got a great, brilliant stats teacher who focused on the simple ideas behind it rather than the number

crunching. Then I was able to just put it together in one place under my understanding of science and research. I

still hate the number crunching, but computers do all that now anyway.

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Sexyredhead]

Yes. I give thanks daily for SAS. [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[bjf]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
You are starting to sound like watcher, posting

your great mixes (sounds like a good one, BTW). [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Don\'t

blame you one bit! I always hated stats too, with a passion (I was cruelly forced to take many courses in it!

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), until I finally got a great, brilliant stats teacher who

focused on the simple ideas behind it rather than the number crunching. Then I was able to just put it together in

one place under my understanding of science and research. I still hate the number crunching, but computers do all

that now anyway. [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

<hr /></blockquote><font

class=\"post\">

DST, I was trying to touch on the irony of it (as we use ratios in the mixes). I actually like

stats. Anyway, what you said about stats being in nature and the way it works, I agree, and I think part of that

could be in our pheromone profile and the relationship between the pheromones we produce.

When you said what you

did I was reminded of your Fiboccini Numbers trials, as you were trying to find ratios in natures and apply that to

pheromone ratio that might be percieved as beautiful.

[DrSmellThis]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
Yes. I give thanks daily for SAS.

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

<hr /></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

So is that the

best stuff now? I remember that and SPSSX from grad school. But it seems like it might be simpler now.

[Sexyredhead]

SAS is evil, until you understand it, then you can chain it up and make it do your dirty work for you.

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DrSmellThis]

...wouldn\'t mind having a girlfriend like SAS! [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Mtnjim]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font

class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
Yes. I give thanks daily for SAS.

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

<hr /></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

So is that the

best stuff now? I remember that and SPSSX from grad school. But it seems like it might be simpler now.

<hr

/></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

Slide Rules dominate [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Pancho1188]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
...wouldn\'t mind having a girlfriend like SAS!

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

<hr

/></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

...wouldn\'t mind having a girlfriend like SRH! Oh, wait...we\'re

talking about statistics...

Well, in that case...

30% of women have made love to a man while he was

asleep
The female orgasm involves 87 muscle contractions per second

...but who\'s counting?

[Sexyredhead]

</font><blockquote><font class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font

class=\"small\">Quote:</font><hr />
...wouldn\'t mind having a girlfriend like SAS!

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

<hr

/></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

...wouldn\'t mind having a girlfriend like SRH! Oh, wait...we\'re

talking about statistics...

Well, in that case...

30% of women have made love to a man while he was

asleep
The female orgasm involves 87 muscle contractions per second

...but who\'s counting?

<hr

/></blockquote><font class=\"post\">

I think I only counted 85.

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Oh welll, I\'ll just have to count again!

[img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[koolking1]

no wonder I haven\'t been sleeping so well!!!!