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View Full Version : USA response to the SARS virus (not good enough)



Watcher
04-01-2003, 05:33 PM
The fact that the plane was allowed to land and those not infected allowed to go is pitiful. Anyone have any ideas on what can and should be done with such passangers.
Perhaps isolated for 3 - 7 days to test for signs of infection.
Once medical researchers know what the actualy virus they can design a blood test to find it out quicker. Also those dying do they have a certain genetic factor that means they cant fight it as well as those that are surviving this virus. My advice is if it gets to bad, head bush for a few weeks with supplies.

bundyburger
04-01-2003, 05:40 PM
<<Anyone have any ideas on what can and should be done with such passangers.
Perhaps isolated for 3 - 7 days to test for signs of infection. >>

OMG! That would just make their day.

Watcher
04-01-2003, 05:44 PM
That would make their day, but it could prevent a wider outbreak of this virus, which down the track has the potential to kill 1 million australians and 240 million people worldwide at the worst outcome. 12-15 million americans could also be killed, the potential is just terrifying. presents probably a much greater threat than the AIDS virus ever has.
In my view extreme measures need to be taken. Not complacent actions aimed at calming the populace. All in the midst of the iraqi war, also has the potential to damage the world economy also causing a severe recession if it gets out of control.

Briela
04-02-2003, 05:54 PM
Actually researchers in Hong Kong have developed a PCR-based screen in record time. It hasn\'t been fully validated, but in the meantime the information is being provided to healthcare providers worldwide to use for testing. Looks to be a coronavirus (flu-like virus family) but there are some similarities to the pox-family also. Maybe a hybrid, but unknown as of yet.

A PCR-based test is relatively fast to run (~2hr) so there\'s a quick turnaround to confirm diagnosis. Unfortunately, the incubation period from initial infection to when the viral load is high enough to be detectable is unknown. How long an infected individual can transmit the virus is also unknown as is the persistance of the virus outside of a host. Too many questions at this point.

Containment is the key right now! You\'re so right in the fact that the plane with the suspected infected passengers should NOT have been allowed to discharged those not infected on the same plane. With the high incidence of transmission evidenced with this virus, it\'s more than likely a great percentage of those people will become ill if the 4 suspected cases pan out to be SARS. Can you say \"pandemic\"? Anybody who\'s been exposed should be quarantined for at least 10 days. I know most people would balk at this, but would anyone really want to infect family & friends just so you\'re not inconvenienced? I think not.

If there\'s anything lucky about this situation, it\'s that less than 10% of the infections are resulting in death at this point. It\'s still a high number, but just think if the mortality rate was 60-80%. Though it may not seem so right now, we\'ve really dodged a bullet. We\'ve known this was a possibility for a long time, but as with most things we\'ve been too self absorbed to imagine the implications of such a scenario. So do you think we\'re going to learn \"the moral of the story\" with this round, or is it going to take something even more severe?

MadDoctor
04-02-2003, 09:08 PM
> If there\'s anything lucky about this situation, it\'s that less than 10% of the infections are resulting in death at this point.

Very true. According to the WHO, 10%-20% of the patients require help breathing. In the industrialized world, that won\'t be a problem until the hospitals are full. In the third world, I don\'t think it will be pretty.

Watcher
04-02-2003, 10:16 PM
I guess at least it isnt ebola, its good to hear the turnaround time in advancements in testing is good. Ebola has a 98% kill rate, now imagine if that got lose, i just hope australian authorities are quick to can it ( 2 suspected cases so far) and both caught at the airport and quanrentined. Other passangers, they were given anti biotics to help and told to contact our Disease control centres immediatley upon any symptoms. ALthough can you imagine the strain on western medical resources if everyone came down with it or 80% of the population, this is big and could cause huge problems.
The third world threatens to be a big problem, if it gets out of control a few months down the track problems could get huge, a good time to invest in bio-tech companies associated with a treatment or cure search, a vaccine would be good. get those investments in order and head bush, get supplies and hide out for a year if things get out of control.

Briela
04-03-2003, 06:19 PM
<<. Other passangers, they were given anti biotics to help and told to contact our Disease control centres immediatley upon any symptoms.>>

They should have offered them all a glass of milk...it would have been just as useful as antibiotics. Antibiotics are only effective against bacterial infections, not viral. SARS is definitely a virus. That\'s why treatment is such a problem. As with most viral infections, you either have to have a vaccine to prevent infection, or ride the infection out.

MadDoctor
04-03-2003, 08:55 PM
Hopefully what was meant was more like ribavirin than tetracycline.

Watcher
04-03-2003, 09:48 PM
Looks like someone has stuffed up, 6 confirmed infections of SARS, luckily all in 2 familys and concentrated in rural victoria. So maybe they got it early. Hope so, i still guess 2000 cases in australia within 2 months however. I wonder how bad it is within the starting point in china and hong kong.

Briela
04-04-2003, 03:55 PM
Well it\'s about time.... President Bush has signed an executive order making SARS a quarantinable disease. On the downside, it only makes a quarantine decree possible, not absolute. That said, the CDC is not recommending that SARS quarantine be passed until things get worse.

HEEELLLLOOOOOOO, if a mandatory quarantine is enacted upon detection, the spread will be halted. So what\'s the logic behind waiting?

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Whitehall
04-04-2003, 04:05 PM
Agreed, a power of quarantine is needed and the quarantine enforced. Best to screen passengers before departure.

Looks like a plane from Toronto to Melbourne had four kids with SARS on it. The Australian government is trying to run down all the other passengers to \"warn\" them.

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0 (\"http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0\"),4057,6240403%255E2,00.html

There is nothing we can do to STOP the spread of SARS to the whole world population. So far, there is nothing we can do to treat it and we\'re not even sure we know what it is.

The only thing we can do is SLOW the spread. That can buy us time to study it more and maybe come up with some mitigations. If it\'s a cold virus, then there is some hope since a few drugs has shown effectiveness is reducing the intensity and reducing contagion for certain viruses.

Quarantine is the only tool we have. Some of my colleagues were planning a trip to Taiwan for a meeting but we\'re having second thoughts.

Buy stock in video conferencing companies.

Briela
04-04-2003, 09:18 PM
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I wonder how bad it is within the starting point in china and hong kong.

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Watcher,

I have a sibling stationed in Southern China (unfortunately), and am able to get the true scoop from him. Hong Kong is really bad! They\'ve got a full blown epidemic on their hands. They\'re setting up quarantined areas all over the city to try and control the spread of the virus. Flights in and out of Hong Kong are dwindling fast. Unfortunately, the disease is still moving through the population like wildfire. The deaths seem to be limited at this point to the elderly and persons with underlying respiratory problems before contracting SARS.

It\'s better on the mainland, though localized areas of southern China are getting hit to a considerable extent. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Briela
04-04-2003, 09:30 PM
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Some of my colleagues were planning a trip to Taiwan for a meeting but we\'re having second thoughts.

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Definitely have second and third thoughts! Getting on a plane and sitting in recirculated, dirty air in such an enclosed area with potentially infected individuals is not something anybody should be doing at this point. Avoid it if at all possible!

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Buy stock in video conferencing companies.

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Actually putting your money into PPE(personal protective equipment) companies would be a better bang for the buck. Do you know how fast masks and gloves are flying off the shelves? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif




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Watcher
04-05-2003, 12:09 AM
Biotech, mask making companies, tech stocks. Drug companies, health care providers etc etc.

seadove
04-06-2003, 08:39 AM
I understand that Canada recorded 6 death casualties from SARS disease.

I didn\'t expect Canada to be so vulnerable with diseases.

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